A new study analysing data from 17 countries estimates that the public health benefits of much higher levels of cycling could save more than 200,000 lives per year in 2050. The study, titled “Premature Mortality of 2050 High Bike Use Scenarios in 17 Countries,” was led by Colorado State University and published in Environmental Health Perspectives. It is the first of its kind to estimate the health impacts related to premature deaths from forecasts of future cycling levels.

The 17 countries, from five continents, were analysed using comprehensive data collected in 2015 that forecasted various scenarios of bicycle usage in 2030 and 2050. Findings include a scenario in which 100% of urban journeys made with cars in 2050 were replaced by bike journeys. In this scenario, a total of 205,424 premature deaths would be avoided due to reductions in air pollution and increases in regular physical activity.

The results are in line with conclusions drawn from previous health impact assessments that have been carried out in individual cities in Europe, such as Barcelona. Another such study found that the 12 largest bike-sharing systems across Europe also had the potential to reduce premature deaths and had a health-related economic value of €225 million if 100% of car trips were replaced by cycling.

In the new Colorado State University study, the 100-percent-modal-shift-to-cycling scenario, though exaggerated, serves an important purpose in highlighting the importance of substituting car journeys with other means of travel for public health. The authors contend that bicycle policies such as cycle lanes and bike-sharing systems – along with policies aimed at reducing car use, such as congestion pricing, parking pricing and parking reduction – are therefore beneficial to urban public health. Stating that “implementing ambitious urban policies supporting biking and car-bike substitution should be considered key public health interventions for a health urban design.”

Data sources and conclusions.

The study performed a quantitative health impact assessment (HIA) that assessed future cycling scenarios in 2050. Data employed in their models was primarily drawn from the Global High Shift Cycling study that predicts various future cycling scenarios, recording and forecasting number of trips per person per day, trip length, kilometres travelled and mode of transport. Other sources included World Health Organization (WHO) data on air quality and traffic related fatalities. 

Countries with existing low traffic safety levels, such as Russia, India and South Africa, were found to benefit most from increased levels of cycling. These results were partially due to current high levels of traffic fatalities and poorer overall air quality, which result from older vehicle fleets, poorer transport infrastructure and an overreliance upon private car use.

The researchers’ discussion concluded that high bicycle use in urban areas should be considered a key public health intervention. Stating that this could be achieved quickly through the retrofitting of bicycle infrastructure into existing road networks, investment into walking facilities and other modes that can be combined with bike trips and the provision of bicycle-sharing systems. Furthermore, they call for the elimination of policies that support additional motorised vehicle use, such as free parking and fuel subsidies.

It is hoped that the general recommendations extracted from the study will be used by health practitioners and national and local authorities to advocate for strong active mobility policies. In line with ECF recommendations, the authors also hope that transport authorities will consider systematic data collection to improve the reliability of data used for designing public health and transport policies.