As the impacts of the Coronavirus change our lives and daily habits all across Europe, the continent is also experiencing an unprecedented cycling wave. On December 2^nd, at the Bike Market Outlook & Perspectives Webinar, Cycling Industries Europe (CIE), the Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) and the European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF), shared their groundbreaking outlook on the 2030 bicycle market considering the consequences of the pandemic on mobility behaviour.

Experts forecast bicycle sales to reach 30 million annually by 2030.

The pandemic has caused a spark in bicycle purchases and has acted as a political catalyst for cycling investments, effectively reshaping the growth curve of the bicycle market. Europeans are expected to buy an extra 10 million bikes per year by 2030, a whopping 47% more than the annual number in 2019. The e-bike is the biggest driver of the market surge, recording a 23% increase in sales between 2019 and 2020 despite many shops being closed during spring. 3.7 million e-bikes were sold in 2019 and, by 2030, experts expect e-bike sales to reach 17 million annually in the EU28.

Another breaking discovery is that the declines seen in the conventional bike market in recent years, due to bike purchases being replaced with e-bike purchases, have come to a halt in 2020. The latest cycling surge has reversed these figures and conventional bike sales are expected to increase by 4%.

E-bikes are the most powerful instrument for change. We are way ahead of electric cars.

- explains Kevin Mayne, CEO of Cycling Industries Europe

The 30 million per year total will take bike sales to more than twice the number of passenger cars currently registered per year in the EU.

The 2030 Market Outlook is a joint undertaking by ECF, CIE and CONEBI using an entirely new methodology. The forecast was calculated analyzing current trends, COVID 19 impacts and government announcements about future cycling measures.

The next Cycle Superpower? How Cycling in Europe has Changed

Holger Haubold, Director of Intellectual Property and Data Collection at the European Cyclists’ Federation shared the latest trends that shape the bicycle market. Haubold presented evidence from various sources, all coming to the same conclusion: the cycling boom is real!

For example, Google found a global increase of 69% in the number of requests for cycling directions between February and June. In countries such as Finland and Poland, the number of requests saw a fourfold increase. Moreover, the number of cycling trips registered in Berlin on the Strava app increased by 56% in April 2020 compared to April 2019. The City of Barcelona saw an increase of 82% between June 2019 and June 2020, while Liverpool recorded an increase of 222% between May 2019 and May 2020.

This sudden cycling surge inspired many European mayors and national governments to invest in more cycling immediately. ECF’s COVID 19 Measures Dashboard tracked over 2,300 km of announced pro-cycling measures and more than € 1 billion of funding allocated to cycling across Europe.

Together with its partners, ECF is making sure that the increase in cycling levels translates into increased investments all around Europe. Together with CIE, ECF published recommendations on including cycling in the National Recovery and Resilience Plans.

We have many different data sources showing us that there has been a big increase in cycling levels this year. If public authorities at all levels continue to make ambitious investments in cycling, we see the potential to keep this additional demand up and grow it even further. This will benefit cyclists and the bicycle industry alike, but most importantly, society as a whole will benefit because of reduced CO2 emissions, reduced congestion, better air quality, and a healthier population. We look forward to continue working closely with our partners in the bicycle industry to achieve these goals.

- said Holger Haubold

Click here for more data on the COVID19 cycling boom.

The  Bike Market Outlook & Perspectives Webinar was hosted by the World Bicycle Industry Association (WBIA), in collaboration with World Federation of the Sporting Goods Industry (WFSGI), and supported by Cycling Industries Europe (CIE), European Cyclists Federation (ECF), Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) and PeopleForBikes.